ATL vs CHC prediction for September 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.2 - ATL 5.7. CHC is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.9 total runs.
CHC
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ATL
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCATL
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
468
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 6.2 — ATL 5.7
Actual
CHC 3 — ATL 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Martín Pérez L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI35%89 mph8% whiff
CH31%82 mph33% whiff
FC22%85 mph16% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%94 mph12% whiff
FS38%84 mph40% whiff
SL9%84 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
79°F1 mph wind
HR: 1.036 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
3.13ERA
3.42FIP
9.61K/9
3.13BB/9
1.14WHIP
CHC
4.25ERA
4.73FIP
9.21K/9
4.12BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
3.2 runs
41.5% win
CHC F5
3.5 runs
46.3% win
F5 Total
6.7
NRFI
39.8%
YRFI
60.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.45
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP60-DAY-IL
Lane Thomas LF10-DAY-IL
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Dansby Swanson SS10-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.