FINAL: MIN 1 — NYY 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 4.1 - NYY 4.4 (NYY at 53.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
MIN
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINNYY
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYYMIN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 4.1 — NYY 4.4
Actual
MIN 1 — NYY 8
Pick Results
MIN MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Fried L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC22%92 mph25% whiff
SI22%93 mph18% whiff
FF18%95 mph16% whiff
Bailey Ober R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH34%83 mph21% whiff
FF32%88 mph15% whiff
SL18%82 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
70°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.038
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.26ERA
4.16FIP
8.31K/9
3.66BB/9
1.24WHIP
MIN
4.51ERA
4.12FIP
9.23K/9
4.09BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-12.8% EV
-189
ML HOME
+11.9% EV
+160
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.3% EV
+100
ML AWAY
-10.6% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-8.2% EV
-112
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
+6.3% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.4 runs
45.4% win
MIN F5
2.2 runs
38.6% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
53.0%
YRFI
47.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.300 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Luis García Jr. NYY28.8%
ISO: 0.127 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Heliot Ramos NYY23.6%
ISO: 0.136 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Bailey Ober | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Fried
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Bailey Ober
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B10-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIN8 injured
Trevor Larnach LFDAY-TO-DAY
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
MIN home dog at +160 is undervalued because the market is overweighting Fried's individual pitching edge and underweighting MIN's home-field compression; model favors NYY overall but gives MIN much more credit than the market does.
Key Factors
- Starting pitchers: Fried 2.95 ERA (B-, clearly the better arm) vs Ober 4.62 ERA (C+) — Fried has the pitcher advantage, and NYY remains the model favorite (57%). The value is in how far the market overshoots that edge.
- Market prices MIN at only 38.5% implied (-175 away favorite), but model has MIN at 43% — a 11.9pp gap that's unusually large for a game with a clear SP edge to the favorite.
- Away favorites show a real structural weakness (45.8% recent WR on away dogs' opponents, i.e., home dogs profit).
- Wind at Target Field: 9.6 mph out, adds modest scoring boost (total_mult 1.038).
- Bullpen: NYY 3.26 ERA advantage over MIN 4.51 ERA is real but insufficient to explain an 11.9pp gap alone.
Risk Factors
- Model still favors NYY to win the game (57%) — this is a value/hedge play on the underdog line, not a claim MIN is actually the better side.
- 11.9% edge triggers HIGH_EDGE_WARNING; justified here as a market overreaction to Fried rather than model overconfidence, but treat with appropriate caution.
- Fried is legitimately elite; if he's sharp, Yankees could cruise and this bet loses clean.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 53.1%
+6.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+6.3 pts
Total
8.0
+2.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.