CWS vs CLE prediction for September 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.5 - CWS 4.3. CLE is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
CLE
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CWS
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLECWS
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
246
CLE
346
Projected
CLE 4.5 — CWS 4.3
Actual
CLE 7 — CWS 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Murphy L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph23% whiff
SL30%89 mph30% whiff
CU24%78 mph36% whiff
Foster Griffin L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%88 mph16% whiff
FF17%92 mph16% whiff
ST14%80 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
86°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.106 Total: 1.058
thin air, 12mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.94ERA
4.28FIP
8.90K/9
4.20BB/9
1.32WHIP
CLE
3.34ERA
3.67FIP
10.18K/9
3.65BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.4 runs
40.1% win
CLE F5
2.6 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
52.7%
YRFI
47.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
CLE4 injured
Angel Martinez LFDAY-TO-DAY
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.