BAL vs NYM prediction for September 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.4 - BAL 4.1. NYM is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
NYM
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BAL
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMBAL
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 4.4 — BAL 4.1
Actual
NYM 5 — BAL 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Baz R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%96 mph13% whiff
KC33%85 mph27% whiff
FC15%90 mph21% whiff
Sean Manaea L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%91 mph20% whiff
ST31%76 mph30% whiff
SI20%90 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
67°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.08ERA
3.75FIP
8.86K/9
3.63BB/9
1.30WHIP
NYM
4.43ERA
4.25FIP
9.45K/9
3.86BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.4 runs
40.2% win
NYM F5
2.6 runs
44.6% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
51.4%
YRFI
48.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Christian Franklin CF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Bradish SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM5 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.