ATL vs LAD prediction for October 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 4.7 - ATL 3.9. LAD is favored with a 62.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
LAD
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ATL
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADATL
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.1% (4,066 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 4.7 — ATL 3.9
Actual
LAD 2 — ATL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ray Kerr L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%95 mph22% whiff
CU31%81 mph27% whiff
SI23%94 mph0% whiff
Blake Snell L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF50%96 mph20% whiff
CU22%80 mph42% whiff
CH18%85 mph41% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
94°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.083 Total: 1.044
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.94ERA
3.37FIP
9.59K/9
2.87BB/9
1.09WHIP
LAD
3.94ERA
3.76FIP
10.20K/9
3.99BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.0 runs
33.8% win
LAD F5
2.6 runs
49.7% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
52.6%
YRFI
47.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Martin Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Mahle SPDAY-TO-DAY
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD7 injured
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Will Klein RP60-DAY-IL
Eric Lauer SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Casparius RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.