MIL vs SD prediction for October 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.4 - MIL 4.3. SD is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
SD
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDMIL
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.7% (4,071 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.4 — MIL 4.3
Actual
SD 4 — MIL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%97 mph19% whiff
FC24%93 mph22% whiff
SI20%97 mph15% whiff
Nick Pivetta R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF52%94 mph16% whiff
CU22%79 mph20% whiff
FC13%91 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
84°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.997
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
2.96ERA
3.35FIP
9.49K/9
3.42BB/9
1.16WHIP
SD
2.84ERA
3.52FIP
9.80K/9
3.90BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.4 runs
39.5% win
SD F5
2.7 runs
45.3% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
50.3%
YRFI
49.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.14
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL5 injured
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
SD8 injured
Rodolfo Duran C60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Luis Rengifo LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.