NYY vs TB prediction for October 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.6 - NYY 3.8. NYY is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
TB
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
NYY
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBNYY
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (4,068 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
TB
246
Projected
TB 3.6 — NYY 3.8
Actual
TB 5 — NYY 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%98 mph32% whiff
FC25%95 mph21% whiff
SI19%98 mph14% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%94 mph19% whiff
CH23%87 mph26% whiff
CU13%80 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
82°F4 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.28ERA
4.13FIP
8.35K/9
3.61BB/9
1.26WHIP
TB
3.10ERA
3.78FIP
9.10K/9
2.81BB/9
1.08WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.2 runs
45.2% win
TB F5
1.9 runs
37.4% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
55.8%
YRFI
44.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYY4 injured
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP15-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP60-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
TB7 injured
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Griffin Jax SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jacob Melton LF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.