FINAL: TOR 7 — BAL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 4.5 - BAL 3.6 (TOR at 62.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
TOR
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BAL
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORBAL
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BAL W4TOR
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.6% (3,902 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
TOR
346
Projected
TOR 4.5 — BAL 3.6
Actual
TOR 7 — BAL 3
Pick Results
TOR MLmlWIN+0.41u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI36%95 mph9% whiff
SL24%87 mph34% whiff
CU22%85 mph34% whiff
Spencer Miles R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI44%96 mph11% whiff
CU25%81 mph23% whiff
SL16%87 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
76°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.045 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.05ERA
3.65FIP
9.23K/9
3.66BB/9
1.31WHIP
TOR
3.38ERA
4.04FIP
8.46K/9
3.86BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 OVER 4.5
-13.6% EV
-120
ML AWAY
-11.7% EV
+113
NRFI YRFI
-9.6% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-8.7% EV
-192
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+8.3% EV
+171
F5_ML HOME
+7.9% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
1.9 runs
33.9% win
TOR F5
2.6 runs
49.6% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Spencer Miles | Park: 1.01x
Coby Mayo BAL27.0%
ISO: 0.141 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Spencer Miles | Park: 1.01x
Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL25.2%
ISO: 0.128 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Spencer Miles | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Spencer Miles
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Christian Franklin CF10-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler O'Neill RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Ponce SP60-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
TOR home favored at 62.0% WP (vs 38% BAL). Market prices TOR at -123 (55.2% implied), creating a +6.8% ML edge. Spencer Miles (2.99 ERA, 22.8% K, command grade 0.774) is clearly superior to Kyle Bradish (4.22 ERA, 21.2% K, command grade 0.466). This lands historically well-supported home favorite bucket (54.9% historical WR, n=200, recent form-validated at a supportive track record).
Key Factors
- Pitcher ERA gap +1.23 runs: Miles 2.99 vs Bradish 4.22 = significant structural edge to TOR
- Command differential massive: Miles 77.4% command grade vs Bradish 46.6% = Miles induces weak contact, low walk rate (5.6% BB)
- Home field historically well-supported: TOR home at 62% sim vs market 55.2% = +6.8% prob edge in a 54.9% historical WR historical support
- F5_ML edge +7.9% confirms early-inning TOR dominance before BAL bullpen exposure
Risk Factors
- TOR away performance context unclear without full season splits (expanded September rosters add volatility)
- Bradish occasional gem risk: 4.22 ERA pitcher can still deliver a 7-8 K outing that resets game narrative
- Rogers Centre retractable roof status unknown for tonight; if closed, weather multiplier becomes fully neutral (already assumed park_factor 1.0)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 62.0%
+8.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+8.3 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.