FINAL: CHC 4 — PIT 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 6.4 - PIT 5.4 (CHC at 61.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
CHC
6.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
PIT
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCPIT
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PITCHC W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.6% (3,902 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
357
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 6.4 — PIT 5.4
Actual
CHC 4 — PIT 3
Pick Results
CHC MLmlWIN+0.42u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Paul Skenes R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%97 mph27% whiff
ST16%84 mph26% whiff
CH13%89 mph33% whiff
Clay Holmes R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI50%93 mph10% whiff
ST18%82 mph24% whiff
CH14%88 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
85°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.094 Total: 1.051
thin air, 9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.78ERA
3.64FIP
9.56K/9
4.16BB/9
1.27WHIP
CHC
4.32ERA
4.75FIP
9.26K/9
4.10BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-14.1% EV
+102
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+13.1% EV
-108
ML AWAY
-12.2% EV
+110
NRFI NRFI
-10.8% EV
+104
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+10.5% EV
+163
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-10.1% EV
-182
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.9 runs
35.5% win
CHC F5
3.7 runs
52.8% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
42.5%
YRFI
57.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.37
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.9
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
89%
No HR
2%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT28.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Clay Holmes | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Conforto CHC23.7%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Clay Holmes
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT6 injured
Esmerlyn Valdez RFDAY-TO-DAY
Braxton Ashcraft SP15-DAY-IL
Isaac Mattson RP15-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Dansby Swanson SS10-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
CHC home favored (61.9% WP) with Clay Holmes (3.06 ERA, elite sinker usage 49.9%) facing Paul Skenes (4.14 ERA, 28.1% K rate but average B- overall stuff grade). Market underprices the OVER by 13.1%; model projects 11.81 total vs market 9.5. 85.2F temp with 9.2 mph tailwind out at Wrigley (thin air, 1971 ft density altitude) = +1.05 run inflation multiplier baked into the sim.
Key Factors
- Weather multiplier +1.05 runs: 85F + 9.2 mph tailwind out (wind dir 254°) at Wrigley = +0.5-1.0 run inflation vs neutral baseline
- Pitcher matchup: Holmes 3.06 ERA (sinker-heavy, 49.9% SI usage) vs Skenes 4.14 ERA (elite K rate 28.1% but average command 0.578) — both give up hard contact at times
- Lineup quality both high: CHC 6.37 proj runs, PIT 5.44 proj runs = natural offensive game, not a pitcher's duel
- F5 OVER edge +5.4% confirms early-inning run expectancy, supporting full-game OVER thesis
Risk Factors
- Edge >13% historically suspicious: model may be overconfident in run projection by 0.5-1.5 runs given known high-edge unreliability pattern
- Skenes elite K-rate (28.1%) could surprise with strikeouts if command locks in, suppressing PIT-side scoring but CHC bats remain live
- Wrigley wind reversals mid-game are common; if wind shifts in-bound, run inflation thesis weakens materially
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 61.9%
+10.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+10.5 pts
Total
9.5
+13.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.