COL vs DET prediction for September 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.3 - COL 3.8. DET is favored with a 58.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
DET
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCOL
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.8% (3,902 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.3 — COL 3.8
Actual
DET 11 — COL 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tanner Gordon R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%93 mph18% whiff
CH22%85 mph21% whiff
SL22%87 mph22% whiff
Andrew Sears L
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%94 mph15% whiff
SL29%82 mph39% whiff
CH14%87 mph54% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
81°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.80ERA
4.31FIP
7.65K/9
4.21BB/9
1.50WHIP
DET
4.20ERA
4.58FIP
8.42K/9
4.24BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.0 runs
35.0% win
DET F5
2.6 runs
49.0% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Sean Sullivan SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Keider Montero SPPATERNITY
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.