KC vs BOS prediction for September 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 4.8 - KC 4.4. BOS is favored with a 57.5% win probability. the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
BOS
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSKC
N/A
Run Line
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.8% (3,902 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
BOS
357
Projected
BOS 4.8 — KC 4.4
Actual
BOS 5 — KC 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Randy Dobnak R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI39%92 mph7% whiff
ST25%82 mph31% whiff
CH21%85 mph27% whiff
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI23%90 mph10% whiff
FF23%92 mph13% whiff
FC20%88 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
71°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.968 Total: 0.980
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.76ERA
4.89FIP
7.77K/9
4.64BB/9
1.52WHIP
BOS
3.06ERA
3.30FIP
9.78K/9
2.95BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.4 runs
38.9% win
BOS F5
2.8 runs
46.7% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
52.3%
YRFI
47.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Jac Caglianone RFDAY-TO-DAY
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1B10-DAY-IL
Eli White CF10-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.