CHC vs CIN prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 5.5 - CHC 6.2. CHC is favored with a 56.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
CIN
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CHC
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINCHC
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
468
CIN
467
Projected
CIN 5.5 — CHC 6.2
Actual
CIN 2 — CHC 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph13% whiff
CH27%79 mph26% whiff
SL15%83 mph36% whiff
Nick Lodolo L
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%94 mph16% whiff
SI26%94 mph7% whiff
CU25%82 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
91°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.077 Total: 1.041
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.30ERA
4.75FIP
9.20K/9
4.13BB/9
1.34WHIP
CIN
4.32ERA
4.69FIP
9.03K/9
4.87BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.8 runs
50.5% win
CIN F5
3.2 runs
38.2% win
F5 Total
7.0
NRFI
38.7%
YRFI
61.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.55
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN5 injured
Spencer Steer 1B60-DAY-IL
Julian Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
Michael Toglia 1B60-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.