TOR vs TEX prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 3.7 - TOR 3.6. TEX is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
TEX
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXTOR
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 3.7 — TOR 3.6
Actual
TEX 6 — TOR 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
José Soriano R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%96 mph17% whiff
KC25%85 mph40% whiff
FF22%97 mph20% whiff
Cal Quantrill R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI25%94 mph12% whiff
FF24%94 mph21% whiff
FS23%85 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
94°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.068 Total: 1.035
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.40ERA
3.99FIP
8.51K/9
3.78BB/9
1.26WHIP
TEX
4.32ERA
4.45FIP
8.52K/9
3.76BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.9 runs
38.4% win
TEX F5
2.0 runs
42.5% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.1%
YRFI
39.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Andres Gimenez SSDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Rudy Martin Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Joc Pederson DHDAY-TO-DAY
Cole Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
MacKenzie Gore SPDAY-TO-DAY
Michael Helman CF60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.