PHI vs NYM prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.4 - PHI 4.6. NYM is favored with a 50.1% win probability. NYM wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
NYM
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PHI
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMPHI
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.3% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
357
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 4.4 — PHI 4.6
Actual
NYM 10 — PHI 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Painter R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%97 mph12% whiff
SL18%88 mph36% whiff
ST16%83 mph26% whiff
Christian Scott R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%96 mph24% whiff
ST23%81 mph29% whiff
FC19%90 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
72°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.004 Total: 1.001
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.38ERA
3.95FIP
10.10K/9
3.43BB/9
1.35WHIP
NYM
4.47ERA
4.32FIP
9.55K/9
3.72BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.6 runs
40.9% win
NYM F5
2.7 runs
44.0% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
48.5%
YRFI
51.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Luzardo SP15-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
NYM7 injured
Jared Young 1B7-DAY IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Duarte RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stock RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.