OAK vs CLE prediction for September 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.0 - OAK 4.2. CLE is favored with a 62.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
CLE
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
OAK
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEOAK
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.9% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 5.0 — OAK 4.2
Actual
CLE 12 — OAK 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%90 mph18% whiff
SL34%76 mph28% whiff
FC20%86 mph24% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC24%86 mph29% whiff
FF24%94 mph13% whiff
SI20%93 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
72°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.042 Total: 1.022
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.98ERA
4.38FIP
9.52K/9
4.65BB/9
1.52WHIP
CLE
3.40ERA
3.70FIP
10.17K/9
3.73BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.3 runs
34.4% win
CLE F5
3.0 runs
51.1% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
52.6%
YRFI
47.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Gage Jump SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Angel Martinez LFDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.