CHC vs MIL prediction for September 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.0 - CHC 4.6. MIL is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
MIL
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILCHC
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (3,835 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.0 — CHC 4.6
Actual
MIL 8 — CHC 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kevin Gausman R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%94 mph12% whiff
FS38%84 mph40% whiff
SL9%84 mph35% whiff
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph18% whiff
CH34%83 mph35% whiff
FC17%88 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
81°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.38ERA
4.78FIP
9.30K/9
4.13BB/9
1.35WHIP
MIL
3.03ERA
3.40FIP
9.55K/9
3.64BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.4 runs
38.6% win
MIL F5
2.9 runs
47.2% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
50.6%
YRFI
49.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Bauers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.