FINAL: SEA 5 — CHC 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 3.1 - CHC 4.1 (CHC at 56.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
SEA
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEACHC
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHC L5SEA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.1 — CHC 4.1
Actual
SEA 5 — CHC 4
Pick Results
CHC @ SEA NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
David Peterson L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph13% whiff
FF24%92 mph18% whiff
SL23%86 mph27% whiff
Kade Anderson L
SEA
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
75°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.042 Total: 1.023
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
4.57FIP
9.00K/9
4.00BB/9
1.31WHIP
SEA
3.68ERA
3.95FIP
9.04K/9
3.36BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-23.3% EV
-132
F5_ML AWAY
+16.2% EV
+106
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-10.2% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-8.4% EV
-196
ML HOME
-8.4% EV
-114
ML AWAY
+4.6% EV
+104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.3 runs
50.7% win
SEA F5
1.6 runs
30.7% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
61.9%
YRFI
38.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.73
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
17%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC27.9%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Kade Anderson | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA22.5%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs David Peterson | Park: 0.89x
Seiya Suzuki CHC22.2%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Kade Anderson | Park: 0.89x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Kade Anderson
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Bryan Woo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
SEA away favorite value: Model gives SEA 56.4% away win prob at +104 (market 49.0% implied), a 4.6% ML edge. David Peterson (5.71 ERA, C+ grades) is mediocre for CHC, while Kade Anderson (SEA... wait CHC home) is TBD with no profile data. SEA's bullpen (3.68 ERA) beats CHC's (4.04 ERA), and F5_ML shows an elite 16.2% edge to SEA, suggesting strong early-inning control.
Key Factors
- Pitcher note: David Peterson (5.71 ERA, C+) pitches away for CHC vs Anderson TBD (CHC home per sim labeling is unusual — double-check but Peterson's poor profile stands regardless of side
- F5_ML edge 16.2%: SEA 56.4% F5 prob is an elite early-inning signal
- Bullpen edge: SEA 3.68 ERA vs CHC 4.04 ERA (0.36 ERA advantage)
- Park factor: T-Mobile 0.89 (runs suppressed) favors the team with better bullpen in close games
- Market odds +104 SEA offer value relative to 56.4% model win prob (breakeven ~49%)
Risk Factors
- Kade Anderson TBD: no grades/ERA/pitch mix data — real uncertainty in evaluating CHC's true pitching quality
- Away underdog historical support still shows sub-50% historical performance
- Game already in progress (SEA 1-0 through 5); limited actionability if betting post-facto
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 56.4%
-8.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-8.4 pts
Total
7.5
+0.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.