CHC vs STL prediction for July 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.4 - CHC 4.5. CHC is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
STL
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CHC
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
346
STL
135
Projected
STL 3.4 — CHC 4.5
Actual
STL 2 — CHC 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Colin Rea R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%94 mph14% whiff
CH18%88 mph25% whiff
SL11%86 mph27% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph11% whiff
CH20%87 mph24% whiff
SI17%90 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
92°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.008
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.4 runs
46.3% win
STL F5
2.0 runs
37.0% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
56.9%
YRFI
43.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL4 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Riley O'Brien RPDAY-TO-DAY
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
UNDER 9.0 edge 15.3% (model 63.4% under prob vs market ~48% implied). Michael McGreevy (C+ grade, 5.9 K/9, poor stuff C-) vs Colin Rea (C+ grade, 5.24 ERA, 8.0 K/9). Both mediocre pitchers. Edge comes from PARK + WEATHER: Busch Stadium in 92F heat with 6mph HEADWIND (in) = run suppression. Model projects 7.89 total vs 9.0 market = 1.1pt UNDER edge. RUN-LINE AWAY -1.5 also shows 9.1% edge.
Key Factors
- UNDER 9.0 edge 15.3% (model 63.4% under prob) — this is the PRIMARY play. Both pitchers are average, so edge comes from environmental factors.
- Weather: 92F (hot, normally inflates) BUT 6mph headwind INTO the park (headwind suppresses fly balls) + low humidity (44%). Combined effect is RUN SUPPRESSION despite heat.
- Park factor: Busch Stadium 1.008 (neutral). No park inflate/deflate. Headwind dominates.
- F5 UNDER 4.5 edge 6.9% (model 52.4% under) — less compelling but consistent with total suppression signal.
- RUN-LINE AWAY -1.5 edge 9.1% (model 44.4% away cover) — CHC should win by 1-2 runs on average.
Risk Factors
- historical support ALERT: 15.3% edge is historically mixed. Recent 15-25% edge picks show a supportive track record (3 losses). This is the EXACT trap.
- Pitcher quality: Both McGreevy (C+) and Rea (C+) are mediocre. If either has an off-day, run suppression thesis breaks down.
- Heat (92F) normally boosts runs. Headwind may not fully offset the heat effect. Model may be overestimating run suppression.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →