TEX vs TB prediction for July 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.7 - TEX 4.1. TEX is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
TB
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBTEX
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
TB
246
Projected
TB 3.7 — TEX 4.1
Actual
TB 1 — TEX 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cal Quantrill R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%94 mph15% whiff
FC28%88 mph12% whiff
FF20%94 mph18% whiff
Griffin Jax R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST26%88 mph33% whiff
CH23%91 mph40% whiff
SI20%96 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
83°F6 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
3.60ERA
4.14FIP
7.63K/9
3.27BB/9
1.23WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.2 runs
44.2% win
TB F5
2.1 runs
39.6% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
56.2%
YRFI
43.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Corey Seager SS10-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB7 injured
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects TEX away win 46.5% prob vs market 40.0% implied. Griffin Jax (8.4 K/9, B- grade, command B-) is favored over Cal Quantrill (6.2 K/9, D stuff, command B). Quantrill's weak stuff (0.096 score, D grade) is the edge. Model edge on AWAY ML: 16.3% (massive), but market prices TAM home favored at -178 (64% implied). This is a strong contrarian play: sharp money has TAM favored; our model likes TEX.
Key Factors
- PITCHER MISMATCH AGAINST MARKET: Cal Quantrill (6.2 K/9, 0.096 stuff score = D grade) is severely underrated by market. Jax (8.4 K/9, B- grade) dominates. This is a 10-15% win-prob swing favoring TEX.
- Model 46.5% TEX win prob vs market 40% = 6.5% edge. But historical support-adjusted (historical support WR 51.5%, n=11) suggests 51.5% true WR, so edge is real but not MASSIVE.
- Indoor dome (Tropicana) = neutral weather, no inflate/deflate. 83F is neutral. This removes confounding variables.
- TEX hitting 4-12 in recent matchups against similar arms. Quantrill is vulnerable to speed (stolen base threat).
Risk Factors
- COMBO historical support 'away ML' is RED (a supportive track record, n=111) — away ML picks have historically underperformed. This contradicts the specific game historical support. Recency vs. historical data conflict.
- TAM -178 is a heavy favorite. Market may know something about TEX lineup or TAM bullpen health we don't see in sim.
- Edge edge is 16.3% but historical support sample is tiny. Real WR could be lower.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →