ATL vs NYM prediction for July 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.2 - ATL 4.9. ATL is favored with a 57.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
NYM
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ATL
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMATL
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
357
NYM
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Sale L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%96 mph23% whiff
SL39%79 mph38% whiff
CH12%88 mph29% whiff
Christian Scott R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%95 mph24% whiff
ST23%81 mph32% whiff
FC17%90 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
77°F15 mph wind
HR: 1.080 Total: 1.044
thin air, 9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.7 runs
54.9% win
NYM F5
1.6 runs
29.2% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
59.5%
YRFI
40.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
GAME POSTPONED due to heavy rain forecast. Per ESPN news (7/28 22:52), ATL-NYM scheduled for Tuesday was postponed. Teams will play doubleheader Wednesday. This game does NOT exist today. Remove from analysis.
Key Factors
- POSTPONED: ESPN confirms heavy rain in forecast for ATL @ NYM. Doubleheader scheduled for Wednesday 7/29.
Risk Factors
- Sim data is STALE. Game appears in simulation output but was cancelled before lock.
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →