FINAL: CWS 2 — NYY 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 3.6 - NYY 4.8 (NYY at 54.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
CWS
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSNYY
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYY W5CWS L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 3.6 — NYY 4.8
Actual
CWS 2 — NYY 3
Pick Results
NYY @ CWS NRFInrfiWIN+0.43u
NYY F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%97 mph20% whiff
SL19%90 mph25% whiff
CH15%86 mph20% whiff
Anthony Kay L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%96 mph16% whiff
ST22%83 mph36% whiff
FC18%91 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
69°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.081 Total: 1.045
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-45.5% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
-13.6% EV
+104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+11.0% EV
+146
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-9.4% EV
-108
ML HOME
-7.0% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
+2.0% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.6 runs
50.6% win
CWS F5
2.0 runs
34.1% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
54.1%
YRFI
45.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.01x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.078 | Barrel: 7.8% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY29.2%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects NYY away 54.3% win prob vs market 53.9% implied (essentially tied). Gerrit Cole (B grade, 7.4 K-rate) faces Anthony Kay (C+ grade, 7.2 K-rate). Cole's A- command (0.818) is a significant edge vs Kay's B- (0.437). RUN-LINE AWAY -1.5 edge is 11.0% (model 45.1% prob), suggesting NYY wins by 2+ infrequently but consistently. Slight contrarian lean given market pricing at coin flip.
Key Factors
- PITCHER ADVANTAGE (COMMAND): Gerrit Cole A- command (0.818) vs Anthony Kay B- (0.437) — 10-15% win-prob swing favoring NYY. Cole is elite; Kay is middling.
- Cole's elite command + limited CWS lineup quality = NYY lean. But historical support is YELLOW (a supportive track record on away ML, n=176) — historically away ML is weak.
- Weather: 68F (cold, suppresses fly balls), 9.8mph tail wind = UNDER lean. Model 8.34 vs market 8.0 = modest over edge (0.34pt). Cold + 45% humidity favors UNDERS.
- NRFI edge 0.8% (minimal). F5 AWAY edge 2.0% (minimal).
Risk Factors
- historical support ALERT: Away ML historical support is YELLOW (a supportive track record, n=176) — historically underperforms. This is a structural weakness in away ML picks.
- Cole at 7.4 K/9 is solid but not elite. Kay at 7.2 K/9 is similar. Difference is command, which is harder to predict than stuff.
- Recent performance: ML bets are 0-6 (disabled in calibration). Avoid ML until system is fixed.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 54.3%
-45.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-45.5 pts
Total
8.0
+0.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →