CLE vs CIN prediction for July 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 4.8 - CLE 5.3. CLE is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
CIN
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CLE
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINCLE
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
CIN
357
Projected
CIN 4.8 — CLE 5.3
Actual
CIN 2 — CLE 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%93 mph16% whiff
FC25%88 mph19% whiff
SI21%93 mph8% whiff
Chase Burns R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF57%98 mph15% whiff
SL37%90 mph49% whiff
CH5%90 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
86°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.086 Total: 1.046
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.52ERA
3.55FIP
10.51K/9
3.50BB/9
1.23WHIP
CIN
4.59ERA
5.23FIP
8.86K/9
5.87BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.9 runs
43.5% win
CIN F5
2.8 runs
42.7% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
49.5%
YRFI
50.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE1 injured
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
CIN7 injured
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Matt McLain 2B10-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Chase Burns (B grade, 10.7 K/9) moderately favors CIN, but model is coin-flip (49.5% home win) — no clear edge, and game is NOT duplicated data integrity issue (appears twice in sim). Weather favorable (+4.6% run mult, 7mph out), but tight matchup with even bullpen profiles.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Burns 10.7 K-rate, 0.56 overall grade (B) vs Cecconi 7.6 K-rate, 0.42 grade (B-) — minor CIN edge in stuff
- Model 49.5% home WP vs market 47.6% implied — 1.9% prob edge is minimal and within noise
- Park factor: Great American +8% HR factor favors overs slightly but weather is warm (86F) with 7mph tail wind — runs overall expected
- Heat + 4.6% run mult but flat matchup suggests slight OVER lean, not directional
Risk Factors
- Duplicate game in simulation (same game_id appears twice with different index). Data integrity concern — lower confidence until verified.
- Slade Cecconi's low 7.6 K-rate masks average stuff (C grade) — CIN lineup has Elly De La Cruz (30% HR prob) and Sal Stewart (30% HR prob) which inflates away expectations
- F5 edge only 0.9% (negligible). NRFI shows 49.5% NRFI prob (coin flip).
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →