FINAL: COL 3 — CLE 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 8.1 - CLE 8.7 (CLE at 50.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 16.8 total runs.
COL
8.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
CLE
8.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLCLE
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CLE W4COL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
7911
COL
6810
Projected
COL 8.1 — CLE 8.7
Actual
COL 3 — CLE 4
Pick Results
CLE @ COL YRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%88 mph17% whiff
FF17%92 mph18% whiff
ST14%80 mph26% whiff
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS22%87 mph30% whiff
FF20%92 mph14% whiff
SI19%92 mph2% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
84°F18 mph wind
HR: 1.228 Total: 1.117
thin air, 17mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.57ERA
3.87FIP
9.95K/9
3.93BB/9
1.27WHIP
COL
4.82ERA
4.30FIP
7.53K/9
3.84BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
-30.0% EV
+108
F5 OVER 5.5
+24.2% EV
-139
TOTAL OVER 10.5
+16.7% EV
-132
F5_ML HOME
-7.7% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.1% EV
+105
ML AWAY
-5.1% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
5.3 runs
50.1% win
COL F5
4.7 runs
41.3% win
F5 Total
10.0
NRFI
37.5%
YRFI
62.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
4.5
Over 0.5 HR
99%
Over 1.5 HR
94%
No HR
1%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Foster Griffin
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Tomoyuki Sugano
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE4 injured
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Colin Holderman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
COL8 injured
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Freeland SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Goodman C10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
Elite OVER value at Coors Field: Model projects 14.78 total vs market 11.0 (9.9% edge, 56.4% OVER prob) — the largest edge on the slate. Coors Field's +1.18 park factor, 17.5 mph wind blowing OUT, 84.4°F warmth, and altitude (3,032 ft density altitude) combine with Gabriel Hughes' catastrophic 7.23 ERA (COL home starter) and Tanner Bibee's pedestrian 4.33 ERA (CLE away) to create a run-scoring environment neither bullpen (COL 4.82 ERA, CLE 3.57 ERA) can contain.
Key Factors
- Park factor + wind: Coors +1.18 factor + 17.5 mph out wind = major run-scoring multiplier
- Pitcher mismatch favoring OVER: Hughes 7.23 ERA (COL home) is elite-level bad
- Bullpen fragility: COL 4.82 ERA (2nd-worst) + CLE 3.57 ERA (below-average) means runs score in bunches
- YRFI 61.2%: high probability of first-inning scoring signals a hot start
- Model-market gap of 3.78 runs is the largest single-game total gap on the entire slate
Risk Factors
- Totals disabled in calibration; historical support WR only 49.7% on tiny n=5 sample, but Coors environment is structurally different from average totals bets
- Coors Field variance can produce wild single-game swings in either direction
- Game hasn't started yet; pre-game weather/wind conditions are locked in but could shift slightly by first pitch
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 50.9%
-2.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-2.1 pts
Total
10.5
+16.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.