CLE vs DET prediction for August 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.5 - CLE 3.4. DET is favored with a 59.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
DET
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCLE
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.0% (3,252 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
135
DET
346
Projected
DET 4.5 — CLE 3.4
Actual
DET 4 — CLE 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%88 mph18% whiff
FF17%92 mph18% whiff
ST14%80 mph28% whiff
Framber Valdez L
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI45%94 mph9% whiff
CU29%78 mph30% whiff
CH19%89 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
82°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.043 Total: 1.021
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.69ERA
3.96FIP
9.84K/9
4.00BB/9
1.28WHIP
DET
4.33ERA
4.56FIP
8.39K/9
4.39BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
1.7 runs
30.8% win
DET F5
2.5 runs
51.5% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
60.8%
YRFI
39.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
DET8 injured
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model favors DET (56.3% home win prob) with modest 1.9% ML edge, but calibration data shows home favorites in this probability range have historically underperformed (14.3% ATS in comparable combo tracking) despite Foster Griffin's mild pitcher edge over Framber Valdez.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage mild for away: Foster Griffin (3.57 ERA, 22.4% K-rate, LHP) is superior to Framber Valdez (4.50 ERA, 18.4% K-rate, LHP), yet model still favors home DET
- Home favorite trap history: 30-day combo data shows home favorites at a supportive track record in similar probability bands — model's 56.3% home call runs against this pattern
- Weather marginal: 81.9F neutral with 12.2 mph cross-wind, 1.021x multiplier — adds minimal runs
- F5 advantage DET: 51.5% home F5 win prob with 6.0% edge — first 5 innings may be where cleaner value lies
Risk Factors
- Home favorite trap: historical WR for home favorites in this probability range is well below breakeven
- Small edge (1.9%) historically mixed: not compelling standalone
- Pitcher parity contradiction: model favoring the team with the worse starter is a caution flag
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.