FINAL: MIA 8 — PIT 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIA 3.6 - PIT 3.3 (MIA at 52.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
MIA
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PIT
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAPIT
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (3,252 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
135
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.6 — PIT 3.3
Actual
MIA 8 — PIT 2
Pick Results
PIT @ MIA NRFInrfiWIN+0.83u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carmen Mlodzinski R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%95 mph15% whiff
FS26%86 mph30% whiff
SI17%94 mph3% whiff
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%94 mph9% whiff
SL21%86 mph12% whiff
CH18%87 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
85°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.042 Total: 1.022
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.45ERA
3.66FIP
9.86K/9
4.14BB/9
1.25WHIP
MIA
4.09ERA
3.90FIP
9.70K/9
4.15BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-19.0% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-11.2% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+10.5% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.7% EV
+164
F5 UNDER 4.5
+7.0% EV
-125
NRFI NRFI
+3.6% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.8 runs
36.9% win
MIA F5
2.1 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.5%
YRFI
39.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
18%
Griffin Conine MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.331 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT28.2%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Heriberto Hernández MIA22.6%
ISO: 0.125 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Carmen Mlodzinski
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Janson Junk
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT5 injured
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
MIA8 injured
Kyle Stowers 1B10-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Model projects 6.97 total runs with 10.5% edge to UNDER 8.0, driven by Carmen Mlodzinski's 3.79 ERA edge over Janson Junk's 5.0 ERA; NRFI edge only 3.6% suggests first-inning scoring likely, reducing conviction on full-game under.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch mild: Janson Junk (5.0 ERA, C+ grade, low stuff) vs Carmen Mlodzinski (3.79 ERA, B- grade) — away pitcher slightly favored but not dominant
- NRFI very soft: Only 3.6% edge (56.9% prob) — suggests first inning is active, tempering full-game under thesis
- Weather warm: 85.4F is moderate heat, 1.022x multiplier adds ~0.2 runs
- F5 UNDER stronger: 7.0% edge to F5 UNDER (59.4% prob) provides better confirmation than full-game under
Risk Factors
- 10.5% edge at historical support boundary: 50.1% baseline WR suggests true edge only 51-53%, not overwhelming
- NRFI contradiction: 3.6% edge NRFI vs 10.5% full-game under inconsistency suggests model may overestimate total suppression
- Junk's mediocrity limits true suppressive power against moderate MIA offense
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 52.6%
-1.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.9 pts
Total
8.0
+10.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.