PHI vs STL prediction for August 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.8 - PHI 4.5. PHI is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
STL
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PHI
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLPHI
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.3% (3,252 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
346
STL
246
Projected
STL 3.8 — PHI 4.5
Actual
STL 7 — PHI 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%95 mph24% whiff
FS16%87 mph46% whiff
SI15%95 mph9% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%94 mph13% whiff
CU17%83 mph26% whiff
SL16%89 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
103°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.132 Total: 1.071
thin air, 13mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.40ERA
3.82FIP
10.38K/9
3.56BB/9
1.35WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.37FIP
7.97K/9
4.27BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.6 runs
49.5% win
STL F5
2.0 runs
34.8% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
52.3%
YRFI
47.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI6 injured
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model shows 55.4% away win prob (PHI) but market implied 61.3% is overpricing PHI relative to model; 103F temperature at STL with 13.4 mph tailwind creates +1.071 run multiplier that neutralizes Wheeler's pitcher advantage and supports the market's skepticism.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch normally favors PHI: Wheeler (2.91 ERA, 30.6% K-rate) vastly superior to Leahy (3.73 ERA, 20.5% K-rate) — normally +3-4% edge
- Extreme weather: 103F Busch Stadium + 13.4 mph out = +1.071x run multiplier — adds ~0.56 runs, swallowing pitcher advantage
- Model underpricing PHI relative to market by -4.7%: model 58.4% vs market implied 61.3% suggests the market has already baked in Wheeler's quality
- Yesterday's blowout: STL beat PHI 7-1 with 4-run fifth inning off Wheeler — recent offensive form worth noting for bullpen/lineup context
Risk Factors
- Negative ML edge: model prob (58.4%) trails market implied (61.3%) by -4.7% on PHI moneyline — no value there
- High-heat environment: Volatile run scoring in 100F+ games leads to unpredictable outcomes for totals
- STL's hot bats: Cardinals lineup hit Wheeler hard yesterday — momentum may persist into today's rematch
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.