FINAL: SD 4 — MIL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 2.9 - MIL 4.0 (MIL at 57.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
SD
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIL
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDMIL
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MILSD W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.8% (3,252 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 2.9 — MIL 4.0
Actual
SD 4 — MIL 3
Pick Results
MIL @ SD NRFInrfiWIN+0.83u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%97 mph18% whiff
FC23%93 mph19% whiff
ST19%86 mph30% whiff
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph19% whiff
SL25%86 mph31% whiff
CH17%86 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
78°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.45ERA
3.60FIP
9.16K/9
3.70BB/9
1.27WHIP
SD
3.20ERA
3.69FIP
9.57K/9
3.67BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-19.1% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-14.2% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+10.0% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-6.8% EV
-172
ML HOME
-6.0% EV
+106
NRFI NRFI
+2.7% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.2 runs
48.0% win
SD F5
1.6 runs
33.0% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
61.4%
YRFI
38.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
21%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.90x
Jackson Chourio MIL27.5%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Ty France SD26.7%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 13.4% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Cooper Pratt SS10-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Model projects 6.88 total runs with 10.0% edge to UNDER 8.0, driven by Robbie Ray's 3.50 ERA (LHP) vs Dustin May's 4.64 ERA and Petco Park's 0.90 suppressive factor; solid but not exceptional since market has likely already priced Petco's suppression.
Key Factors
- Park factor dominance: Petco Park (0.90 factor) is one of MLB's run-suppressive stadiums — 8.0 total already adjusted downward by smart market
- Pitcher advantage mild: Ray (3.50 ERA, 20.5% K-rate, LHP) beats May (4.64 ERA, 22.9% K-rate) but gap is moderate, not dominant
- Weather neutral: 77.5F with 8.6 mph cross-wind (neutral 1.004x multiplier) — no temperature edge
- NRFI soft: Only 2.7% edge (58.0% prob) suggests first inning likely sees run(s) — under confidence reduced
Risk Factors
- 10.0% edge at historical support boundary (50.1% baseline): Acceptable but not elite — expect 50-52% true WR
- Petco historically soft for unders already: Market has priced -10% park factor already — limited residual edge
- MIL as road team may see slight fatigue but no confirmed getaway day issue found
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 57.4%
-6.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-6.8 pts
Total
8.0
+10.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.