CLE vs OAK prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.1 - CLE 3.9. OAK is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
OAK
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
CLE
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKCLE
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 4.1 — CLE 3.9
Actual
OAK 5 — CLE 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF45%92 mph14% whiff
CH25%80 mph45% whiff
CU17%79 mph29% whiff
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI38%94 mph19% whiff
FC17%91 mph23% whiff
CH16%88 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
61°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.976 Total: 0.985
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
4.35ERA
4.08FIP
10.12K/9
3.43BB/9
1.26WHIP
OAK
3.86ERA
4.32FIP
8.61K/9
4.66BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.4% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-30.2% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+20.1% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.2% EV
+140
NRFI NRFI
+12.5% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-11.8% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.0 runs
38.0% win
OAK F5
2.4 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
58.7%
YRFI
41.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Daniel Schneemann CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Shea Langeliers OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.343 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Chase DeLauter CLE27.1%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE5 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Ingle CDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
OAK6 injured
Jeffrey Springs SPDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LFDAY-TO-DAY
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
JJ Goss SPDAY-TO-DAY
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE56.7% WR (n=9)
Two competent pitchers (Ginn 3.50 ERA, Cantillo 3.21 ERA) in neutral ballpark with 61.3°F weather (6mph wind blowing in, -6.4 tail wind) create structural under. Model 8.0 vs market 9.5 = 20.1% under edge. NRFI 12.5%, F5 under 11.7%. Green-zone (56.7% WR) adds confidence despite calibration caution.
Key Factors
- J.T. Ginn: 3.50 ERA, B- overall, SI-heavy arsenal (38% SI), 20% K-rate
- Joey Cantillo: 3.21 ERA, B overall, balanced arsenal, 28.5% K-rate — elite strikeout stuff
- Cantillo has edge (0.29 ERA, better K rate) despite being away pitcher
- Weather: 61.3°F, 8mph wind, -6.4 tail wind (blowing in) = runs suppression
- Park: Oakland neutral (1.0) but cold+wind matters in open stadium
Risk Factors
- Cantillo (3.21 ERA) is solid but not elite; can still get shelled if lineup catches up
- Oakland neutral park gives no home-field under advantage
- 20.1% under edge is moderate-high; caution on edge >15% still applies
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTNRFI EDGEF5 EDGEGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 54.0%
-32.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.4 pts
Total
9.5
+20.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →