CLE vs OAK prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.1 - CLE 3.9. OAK is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
OAK
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
CLE
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKCLE
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 4.1 — CLE 3.9
Actual
OAK 5 — CLE 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF45%92 mph14% whiff
CH25%80 mph45% whiff
CU17%79 mph29% whiff
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI38%94 mph19% whiff
FC17%91 mph23% whiff
CH16%88 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
61°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.976 Total: 0.985
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
4.35ERA
4.08FIP
10.12K/9
3.43BB/9
1.26WHIP
OAK
3.86ERA
4.32FIP
8.61K/9
4.66BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.4% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-30.2% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+20.1% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.2% EV
+140
NRFI NRFI
+12.5% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-11.8% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.0 runs
38.0% win
OAK F5
2.4 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
58.7%
YRFI
41.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Daniel Schneemann CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Shea Langeliers OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.343 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Chase DeLauter CLE27.1%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE5 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Ingle CDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
OAK6 injured
Jeffrey Springs SPDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LFDAY-TO-DAY
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
JJ Goss SPDAY-TO-DAY
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE56.7% WR (n=9)
Two competent pitchers (Ginn 3.50 ERA, Cantillo 3.21 ERA) in neutral ballpark with 61.3°F weather (6mph wind blowing in, -6.4 tail wind) create structural under. Model 8.0 vs market 9.5 = 20.1% under edge. NRFI 12.5%, F5 under 11.7%. Green-zone (56.7% WR) adds confidence despite calibration caution.
Key Factors
- J.T. Ginn: 3.50 ERA, B- overall, SI-heavy arsenal (38% SI), 20% K-rate
- Joey Cantillo: 3.21 ERA, B overall, balanced arsenal, 28.5% K-rate — elite strikeout stuff
- Cantillo has edge (0.29 ERA, better K rate) despite being away pitcher
- Weather: 61.3°F, 8mph wind, -6.4 tail wind (blowing in) = runs suppression
- Park: Oakland neutral (1.0) but cold+wind matters in open stadium
Risk Factors
- Cantillo (3.21 ERA) is solid but not elite; can still get shelled if lineup catches up
- Oakland neutral park gives no home-field under advantage
- 20.1% under edge is moderate-high; caution on edge >15% still applies
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTNRFI EDGEF5 EDGEGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 54.0%
-32.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.4 pts
Total
9.5
+20.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →