COL vs NYY prediction for September 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 5.3 - COL 5.1. NYY is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
NYY
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
COL
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYCOL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,835 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
357
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.3 — COL 5.1
Actual
NYY 6 — COL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS21%87 mph29% whiff
FF21%92 mph13% whiff
SI18%92 mph4% whiff
Will Warren R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%94 mph20% whiff
SI26%93 mph16% whiff
ST20%84 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
82°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.040 Total: 1.021
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.65ERA
4.24FIP
7.72K/9
4.17BB/9
1.49WHIP
NYY
3.19ERA
4.06FIP
8.37K/9
3.58BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
3.0 runs
40.6% win
NYY F5
3.3 runs
47.4% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
42.3%
YRFI
57.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.39
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY7 injured
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.