FINAL: SF 7 — COL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SF 3.0 - COL 2.8 (SF at 52.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.8 total runs.
SF
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
COL
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCOL
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
COL L4SF W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (3,293 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
135
SF
135
Projected
SF 3.0 — COL 2.8
Actual
SF 7 — COL 1
Pick Results
COL @ SF NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Lorenzen R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH20%85 mph29% whiff
SI20%93 mph9% whiff
FF18%94 mph8% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph9% whiff
CH25%86 mph28% whiff
ST19%84 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
64°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.073 Total: 1.043
13mph out
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.95ERA
4.35FIP
7.57K/9
3.90BB/9
1.50WHIP
SF
4.71ERA
4.68FIP
7.21K/9
4.65BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-21.9% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+15.5% EV
-147
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+12.9% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.3% EV
+130
NRFI NRFI
+11.2% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-10.4% EV
-196
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
1.3 runs
32.7% win
SF F5
1.7 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
65.0%
YRFI
34.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
73%
Over 1.5 HR
37%
No HR
27%
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Rafael Devers SF27.4%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Michael Lorenzen | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Mickey Moniak COL21.8%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Logan Webb | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael Lorenzen
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Willy Adames SSDAY-TO-DAY
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B60-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Michael Lorenzen (7.38 ERA, disaster) faces Logan Webb (3.88 ERA) in Oracle Park's marine layer with 13 mph wind and 63.7F cold creating a -12% park factor suppression. Model projects 5.82 total runs vs market 7.5 — 12.9% UNDER edge, with NRFI confirming at 11.2% (historically well-supported).
Key Factors
- Lorenzen 7.38 ERA is catastrophic SP tier vs Webb 3.88 — SP quality gap is MASSIVE (3.5-era swing)
- Park factor 0.88 + marine layer + 63.7F + 13mph wind = extreme run suppression, most extreme environment on slate
- Model projection 5.82 runs is 1.68 below market 7.5 — robust gap across pitching + environment factors
- NRFI 11.2% edge at 60.1% (historically well-supported) confirms early scoring suppression thesis
- F5 UNDER shows 15.5% edge BUT exceeds calibration max (10%) — HIGH EDGE WARNING, use as secondary confirmation only
Risk Factors
- HIGH EDGE OVERCONFIDENCE: F5 UNDER shows 15.5% edge at 68.7% prob — exceeds calibration cap; historical WR for high-edge plays (42.3%) suggests model overconfidence on exact magnitude
- Lorenzen could have bounce-back game despite poor season ERA
- COL hitters vs marine layer/cold is real wildcard but supports the thesis, not against it
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 52.2%
-11.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.3 pts
Total
7.5
+12.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.