SD vs CLE prediction for August 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.3 - SD 4.6. SD is favored with a 58.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
CLE
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SD
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLESD
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.2% (3,293 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
357
CLE
135
Projected
CLE 3.3 — SD 4.6
Actual
CLE 6 — SD 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Wandy Peralta L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI39%96 mph13% whiff
CH34%90 mph28% whiff
SL16%89 mph28% whiff
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%92 mph15% whiff
CU29%80 mph37% whiff
CH26%81 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
79°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.022 Total: 1.010
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.17ERA
3.65FIP
9.64K/9
3.71BB/9
1.22WHIP
CLE
3.67ERA
3.92FIP
9.86K/9
3.98BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.5 runs
53.1% win
CLE F5
1.5 runs
28.7% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
62.2%
YRFI
37.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE2 injured
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.