STL vs CHC prediction for August 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.6 - STL 3.7. CHC is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
CHC
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCSTL
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.1% (3,293 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 4.6 — STL 3.7
Actual
CHC 4 — STL 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph11% whiff
CH20%87 mph25% whiff
SI16%91 mph9% whiff
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph14% whiff
CH27%79 mph26% whiff
SL15%83 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
75°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.059 Total: 1.031
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.26ERA
4.40FIP
7.89K/9
4.30BB/9
1.36WHIP
CHC
4.03ERA
4.56FIP
9.00K/9
3.95BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.0 runs
34.9% win
CHC F5
2.7 runs
49.1% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
56.5%
YRFI
43.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.