CWS vs DET prediction for August 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.7 - CWS 4.8. DET is favored with a 50.1% win probability. DET wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
DET
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CWS
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCWS
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.3% (3,293 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
DET
357
Projected
DET 4.7 — CWS 4.8
Actual
DET 3 — CWS 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Anthony Kay L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF23%96 mph17% whiff
ST22%83 mph37% whiff
SI18%95 mph15% whiff
Troy Melton R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%96 mph20% whiff
FC22%92 mph20% whiff
SL16%87 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
74°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.003 Total: 0.999
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.79ERA
4.17FIP
9.02K/9
4.56BB/9
1.35WHIP
DET
4.34ERA
4.60FIP
8.25K/9
4.37BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.5 runs
39.3% win
DET F5
2.8 runs
45.8% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
55.3%
YRFI
44.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
DET8 injured
James Outman CF7-DAY IL
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.