FINAL: SEA 0 — DET 11. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 2.5 - DET 3.1 (DET at 55.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.6 total runs.
SEA
2.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
DET
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEADET
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DETSEA L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (3,170 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
135
SEA
124
Projected
SEA 2.5 — DET 3.1
Actual
SEA 0 — DET 11
Pick Results
DET @ SEA NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Framber Valdez L
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI45%94 mph9% whiff
CU29%78 mph30% whiff
CH19%89 mph21% whiff
Bryce Miller R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%96 mph17% whiff
FS24%85 mph30% whiff
SL11%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
75°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.027 Total: 1.014
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.46ERA
4.61FIP
8.39K/9
4.42BB/9
1.38WHIP
SEA
3.31ERA
3.87FIP
8.92K/9
3.38BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-23.5% EV
-118
F5 UNDER 4.5
+23.2% EV
-139
F5_ML HOME
-18.6% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+14.9% EV
-104
NRFI NRFI
+10.9% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
+9.5% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
1.5 runs
42.5% win
SEA F5
1.1 runs
31.0% win
F5 Total
2.6
NRFI
70.0%
YRFI
30.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.53
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
73%
Over 1.5 HR
38%
No HR
27%
Dominic Canzone SEA26.0%
ISO: 0.317 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 0.89x
Dillon Dingler DET25.5%
ISO: 0.296 | Barrel: 14.6% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 0.89x
Spencer Torkelson DET22.6%
ISO: 0.217 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 0.89x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA7 injured
Luke Raley RF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Bryce Miller (3.02 ERA, 26.1% K-rate, B overall stuff) SEC home vs Framber Valdez (4.76 ERA, 18.3% K-rate, C+ stuff, heavy SI pitcher). Miller elite vs Valdez substandard creates pitching advantage for SEA despite being underdog. Model UNDER 7.5 at 58.6% prob (14.9% edge) lands historically mixed but F5 UNDER 4.5 shows 23.2% edge at 71.7% prob — extremely sharp first-inning lean. T-Mobile retractable roof likely CLOSED in cool 74.9°F conditions dampens run environment.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch heavily SEA: Miller 3.02 ERA (B stuff 0.437, 26.1 K%) >> Valdez 4.76 ERA (C+ stuff 0.254, 18.3 K%) — Miller elite vs Valdez pedestrian
- Seattle T-Mobile retractable roof likely closed in cool 74.9°F weather (park factor 0.89, runs suppressed -11%) — among lowest run environments in MLB
- F5 UNDER 4.5 edge of 23.2% (model 71.7%) >> full game UNDER 14.9% — indicates early-inning suppression by Miller; high edge suggests first 5 innings best bet structure
- DET road team underdog status (+106 odds, 48.5% implied) — yet model projects 50.5% win prob, implying 2% edge on DET ML if that were selected
Risk Factors
- 14.9% edge historically mixed is HIGH-EDGE-WARNING territory per calibration alerts — recent 60-65% prob games showing a supportive track record (worst performers). F5 market at 23.2% edge even more worrying
- Valdez sinker-heavy (44.7% SI rate) could induce early weak contact not reflected in ERA; DET could score quickly if aggressive early
- Miller COULD regress given road game vs decent DET lineup — 5.5 run model total seems aggressive
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 55.0%
-5.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-5.8 pts
Total
7.5
+14.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.