FINAL: BOS 12 — CWS 11. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 3.5 - CWS 3.4 (BOS at 51.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
BOS
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSCWS
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (3,170 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
135
BOS
245
Projected
BOS 3.5 — CWS 3.4
Actual
BOS 12 — CWS 11
Pick Results
CWS @ BOS NRFInrfiWIN+0.88u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%95 mph24% whiff
SL26%86 mph24% whiff
SI16%96 mph10% whiff
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI23%90 mph12% whiff
FF22%92 mph15% whiff
FC21%88 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
88°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.037
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.91ERA
4.18FIP
9.17K/9
4.51BB/9
1.35WHIP
BOS
3.41ERA
3.63FIP
9.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-19.8% EV
-118
F5 UNDER 4.5
+15.6% EV
-106
F5_ML HOME
-14.1% EV
-196
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.2% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+11.1% EV
-104
ML AWAY
+10.7% EV
+170
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.7 runs
36.4% win
BOS F5
2.0 runs
43.9% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
61.1%
YRFI
38.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
16%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 17.0% | vs Ranger Suarez | Park: 1.08x
Wilyer Abreu BOS28.6%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Luis Castillo | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS27.3%
ISO: 0.274 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Ranger Suarez | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Ranger Suarez
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
BOS8 injured
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Luis Castillo (5.46 ERA, 19.4% K-rate, B- stuff, weaker recent performance) vs Ranger Suarez (3.4 ERA, 25.2% K-rate, B- stuff) — CWS road underdog at +170 (37% implied) but model projects 41% win prob for 10.7% edge. Fenway hot (88.4°F) with 6.8 mph tail wind (1.037 total_mult, 1.069 HR_mult) = HR-friendly environment. BOS home field advantage (+2% implied) baked into market, but Castillo weakness creates value lever.
Key Factors
- SP quality: Suarez 3.4 ERA, 25.2% K-rate (B- stuff) vs Castillo 5.46 ERA, 19.4% K-rate — 2.06 ERA gap with K-rate advantage to BOS pitcher, but not elite, both sub-B+
- Fenway home field (88.4°F, wind out, 1.069 HR_mult) dramatically favors BOS bats; Boston should score early if Castillo struggles
- CWS road dog at +170 (37% implied) vs 41% model win prob = 4pp edge — insufficient for BET but LEAN-worthy given secondary support (weather, pitcher gap)
- Historical away underdog ML performance: a supportive track record historically weak, but this combo (10-15% edge, <50% prob) shows a supportive track record on only 5 samples — unreliable
Risk Factors
- 10.7% edge initially reported but edge_analysis shows only 4.0pp gap (41% model vs 37% implied) — discrepancy suggests model overestimating CWS improvement probability
- Fenway wind could shift; if it turns in or calms, BOS advantage diminishes sharply
- Road underdog historical struggles: away ML historical support RED (a supportive track record) suggests betting against market consensus typically fails
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 51.6%
-13.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.2 pts
Total
8.5
+11.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.