LAA vs BAL prediction for August 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.6 - LAA 2.9. BAL is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
BAL
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAA
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALLAA
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.2% (3,170 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 3.6 — LAA 2.9
Actual
BAL 1 — LAA 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Johnson R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC31%90 mph28% whiff
SI26%92 mph3% whiff
FS26%85 mph35% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%94 mph18% whiff
FS21%85 mph23% whiff
SL15%84 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
86°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.036
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
3.77ERA
4.41FIP
9.89K/9
4.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
BAL
4.36ERA
4.00FIP
8.61K/9
3.71BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.4 runs
30.8% win
BAL F5
2.0 runs
48.4% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
64.8%
YRFI
35.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
BAL8 injured
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Brandon Young (3.57 ERA, 19.1% K-rate, C+ stuff) vs Ryan Johnson (8.24 ERA, 18.4% K-rate, B- overall but wild at 9.2% BB-rate) — mismatch favors BAL, but model UNDER 9.5 at 61.4% prob with 19.7% edge is high-edge trap; 85.7°F + 6.9 mph tail wind + 1.036 total_mult inflates runs, yet low-K pitchers suppress scoring; historically mixed cautions vs high edge
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Young (3.57 ERA, 19.1 K%) >> Johnson (8.24 ERA, 18.4 K%) — but both substandard K-rates limit run suppression
- Temperature 85.7°F + 6.9 mph tail wind + high humidity (77%) = favorable run environment per park factor 1.036 — model total 6.51 seems suppressed for conditions
- NRFI edge of 13.8% (54.7% prob) is actionable but smaller than UNDER edge — suggests early-game dry conditions primary driver
- Historical UNDER totals WR: 48.7% (67-70) over last 30d despite 12pp minimum edge requirement — historically weak on under totals shows -9.5u ROI
Risk Factors
- 19.7% edge = red flag for model overconfidence per calibration alert; high-edge games worst historical performers (a supportive track record on 60-65% prob games)
- BAL's bullpen fresh after no prior day appearance vs LAA bullpen usage unknown — could swing late-game scoring
- Ryan Johnson could get lit up early, creating 2-3 run deficit erasing both run props and UNDER value if game gets out of hand
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.