NYM vs CLE prediction for August 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.5 - NYM 3.4. CLE is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
CLE
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLENYM
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (3,170 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
135
CLE
245
Projected
CLE 3.5 — NYM 3.4
Actual
CLE 6 — NYM 13
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI33%95 mph13% whiff
FF20%96 mph26% whiff
ST15%85 mph24% whiff
Foster Griffin L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%88 mph18% whiff
FF17%92 mph18% whiff
ST14%80 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
82°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.016
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.36ERA
4.31FIP
9.32K/9
4.14BB/9
1.39WHIP
CLE
3.56ERA
3.87FIP
9.87K/9
3.83BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.9 runs
41.0% win
CLE F5
1.8 runs
39.0% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
62.8%
YRFI
37.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CLE1 injured
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Nearly coin-flip matchup (51.9% CLE vs 48.1% NYM) with mediocre SP quality on both sides (Griffin 3.30 ERA B- stuff, McLean 3.55 ERA B stuff) — no directional edge. Market priced -121/+112 reflecting coin-flip dynamics. All edges <4% (highest UNDER 7.5 at 1.9%). Insufficient signal for any action.
Key Factors
- SP quality nearly identical: Griffin (B-, 3.30 ERA, 22.2% K-rate) vs McLean (B, 3.55 ERA, 28.3% K-rate) — McLean slightly sharper but marginal
- CLE home field advantage (+1% implied) already baked into -121 home ML — market respecting context
- Cold Cleveland weather (82.5°F, 55% humidity) suppresses runs vs August baseline
- All market edges sub-4%: F5 UNDER 4.5 not shown but worst performer historically (F5_ML home at -8.6% edge)
Risk Factors
- Coin-flip dynamics = maximum variance; 51.9% model probability on home ML roughly matches -121 market odds — zero informational edge
- Juan Soto (NYM, 10-DAY-IL calf) likely affects lineup but already priced if known
- CLE bench/young roster transition creates unpredictability
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.