FINAL: CWS 5 — HOU 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 5.4 - HOU 5.0 (CWS at 52.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
CWS
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSHOU
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (3,008 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 5.4 — HOU 5.0
Actual
CWS 5 — HOU 9
Pick Results
HOU @ CWS NRFInrfiLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU33%77 mph36% whiff
FF29%92 mph20% whiff
ST12%80 mph25% whiff
Davis Martin R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph21% whiff
SI18%93 mph8% whiff
SL14%87 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
75°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.993
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.8% EV
-182
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-21.1% EV
+102
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+10.3% EV
-123
F5_ML AWAY
-6.1% EV
+116
ML HOME
-5.7% EV
-130
F5_ML HOME
-4.5% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.5 runs
37.6% win
CWS F5
3.1 runs
48.9% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
49.3%
YRFI
50.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
10%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Davis Martin | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.078 | Barrel: 7.8% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS29.3%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Davis Martin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU5 injured
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
CWS OVER 8.5 at 60.9% model probability (10.3% edge, in 10-15% calibration band but above safe 8% ML cap for totals). Martin (B-, 0.476 grade, 9.1 K/9) vs Arrighetti (C+, 0.419 grade, 8.6 K/9) creates balanced SP environment. However, model projects 10.38 total runs (1.88-run gap vs 8.5 market) — significant discrepancy. Recent 30d totals a supportive track record (breakeven), but 10-15% edge band shows a supportive track record (concerning). HOU bullpen (4.13 ERA, 1.09 quality) vs CWS (4.29 ERA, 1.049 quality) essentially even. Both lineups productive (Yordan Alvarez 0.323 ISO for HOU, CWS Vargas/Murakami power candidates). Weather cool (75F, 8.8 mph in wind) — slight suppression multiplier 0.993. Edge 10.3% is above calibration concern (max 8% for totals); treat as LEAN, not BET. Use 1.0 unit due to edge quality and consistent pitcher projections supporting run environment.
Key Factors
- Run environment: Model 10.38 total vs market 8.5 — 1.88-run gap (10.3% edge) well above safe 8% threshold
- SP parity: Martin (B-, 0.476) vs Arrighetti (C+, 0.419) slightly favors CWS but K-rates balanced (9.1 vs 8.6)
- Bullpen balance: HOU 4.13 ERA vs CWS 4.29 ERA — negligible relief advantage
- Lineups: HOU Alvarez (0.323 ISO) strong power; CWS Vargas/Murakami decent but lower ISO (0.2/0.078)
- Weather penalty: 75F (cool) + 8.8 mph wind in = 0.993 multiplier (slight run suppression ~0.3-0.4 runs)
Risk Factors
- Edge 10.3% above calibration safe historical support — elevated risk of overconfidence
- Recent 10-15% edge totals: a supportive track record — below breakeven suggests historical support underperforms
- historically mixed totals (a supportive track record) show no advantage despite modeled edge
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 52.6%
--
Run Line
-1.5
--
Total
8.5
+10.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.