FINAL: NYM 6 — KC 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 4.2 - KC 3.6 (NYM at 53.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
NYM
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
KC
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMKC
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KC L5NYM
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,780 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 4.2 — KC 3.6
Actual
NYM 6 — KC 2
Pick Results
KC @ NYM F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+1.08u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Steven Cruz R
KC
FF57%98 mph29% whiff
FC24%93 mph36% whiff
SL17%89 mph24% whiff
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF50%95 mph25% whiff
ST23%81 mph32% whiff
FC17%89 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
76°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.066 Total: 1.037
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.0% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-21.2% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+12.2% EV
-110
ML HOME
-10.5% EV
-172
F5_ML AWAY
-7.4% EV
+124
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.2% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.0 runs
35.1% win
NYM F5
2.6 runs
50.0% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
51.7%
YRFI
48.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Steven Cruz | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
A.J. Ewing NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.102 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Steven Cruz | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Francisco Alvarez NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.165 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Steven Cruz | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Steven Cruz
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B10-DAY-IL
Kyle Isbel CF10-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SPBEREAVEMENT
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RPOUT
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE44.9% WR (n=164)
Model favors NYM at -172 ML (strong market confidence), but the +5.8% AWAY edge to KC is misleading: KC's 43.3% model win prob combined with +5.8% edge triggers RED zone away-ML signal (44.9% historical WR). Market is correct that NYM is significantly better; Scott (B-, 10.5 K/9) edges Cruz (B, 12.1 K/9) only on command, not stuff. UNDER 9.0 at +12.2% edge (58.7% WR) is the legitimate play here, not KC outright.
Key Factors
- KC away at +144 (5.8% edge): RED zone away-ML 44.9% WR (n=164) — historically this combo loses. Market -172 NYM is correct.
- SP: Scott (B-, 10.5 K/9, 0.531 grade) vs Cruz (B, 12.1 K/9, 0.635 grade) — Cruz actually BETTER stuff; Scott's edge is command only (0.543 vs 0.613). False advantage.
- UNDER 9.0: Model 7.83 vs market 9.0 = 1.17 run swing, +12.2% edge (58.7% WR). This is the credible edge, not KC ML.
- NYM has superior lineup (Soto, Alvarez) vs KC; model correctly favors home
Risk Factors
- Away ML edge 5.8% with 43.3% win prob = classic underdog trap; market at -172 is sharp, not wrong
- Weather: 76.5F + 8.5mph wind out at Citi Field inflates runs ~0.3, but UNDER still has margin
- NRFI edge only 1.8% (49.4% prob) — not leverageable
RED ZONE AWAY MLHIGH EDGE WARNINGMARKET LIKELY CORRECTUNDER IS BETTER PLAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 53.7%
-7.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.2 pts
Total
9.0
+12.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →