FINAL: CWS 0 — BOS 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 4.0 - BOS 2.8 (CWS at 59.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
CWS
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSBOS
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BOS W4CWS
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (2,780 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 4.0 — BOS 2.8
Actual
CWS 0 — BOS 5
Pick Results
CWS F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Davis Martin OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Bennett L
BOS
FF33%93 mph28% whiff
SI28%92 mph6% whiff
CH26%84 mph34% whiff
Davis Martin R
CWS
FF26%94 mph22% whiff
SI18%93 mph9% whiff
CH14%90 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
82°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-38.0% EV
+146
F5_ML AWAY
-33.1% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-23.0% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
+20.5% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-16.6% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+14.7% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.3 runs
24.7% win
CWS F5
2.5 runs
59.1% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
56.7%
YRFI
43.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.01x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.352 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Randal Grichuk CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.078 | Barrel: 7.8% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Davis Martin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Nate Eaton OFSUSPENSION
Ranger Suarez SPDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE50.2% WR (n=49)
CWS F5 ML shows EXCEPTIONAL +20.5% edge (65.8% model prob) — strongest single edge on slate. Martin (B-, 3.33 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 0.498 grade) vs Bennett (B-, 0.457 grade, 4.8 K/9) is mismatch in Martin's favor at home. Weather 81.5F + thin air (1.0 park factor) neutral. CWS projects 2.49 F5 runs vs BOS 1.27 — dominant early-inning edge. Full-game ML at +5.8% (56.0% WR) also edges above threshold, but F5_ML is the cleanest play with historical 71.4% WR on F5_ML away... wait, this is HOME. F5_ML HOME historical WR 50.2% (YELLOW), but edge is exceptional at +20.5%. RECOMMEND F5 ML CWS at 1.0 unit.
Key Factors
- F5 ML edge: +20.5% (65.8% model prob vs 52.9% market implied = 12.9% edge, extremely rare) — CWS F5 dominant
- SP Martin: B- grade, 3.33 ERA (strong), 8.0 K/9, 0.498 overall grade vs Bennett (0.457, 4.8 K/9) — Martin significantly better early
- F5 scoring: CWS 2.49 runs vs BOS 1.27 — nearly 2:1 ratio favors home in early frame
- Full-game ML also shows +5.8% edge (56.0% model prob), making CWS -112 attractive at 1.0 unit base
Risk Factors
- F5_ML home historical WR 50.2% (YELLOW zone 49 games) suggests caution, but +20.5% edge is rare enough to override zone history
- BOS has offensive talent (lineup deep) but Bennett's weakness (0.457 grade) is severe vs CWS daily hitting
- Weather 81.5F is standard, no extreme heat or cold
EXCEPTIONAL F5 EDGEPITCHER MISMATCH HOMEHIGH CONFIDENCE MODIFIEREARLY INNING DOMINANCEWEATHER NEUTRAL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 59.3%
-16.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-16.6 pts
Total
8.0
+14.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →