FINAL: TB 3 — NYY 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 3.1 - NYY 3.6 (NYY at 52.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
TB
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBNYY
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYY L5TB W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,780 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.1 — NYY 3.6
Actual
TB 3 — NYY 0
Pick Results
NYY F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
FF43%97 mph16% whiff
SL18%89 mph31% whiff
CH14%86 mph15% whiff
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF38%96 mph16% whiff
CH29%87 mph34% whiff
SL20%88 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
90°F8 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.8% EV
-213
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-20.5% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-15.4% EV
-128
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+9.7% EV
-122
ML HOME
-9.0% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+8.5% EV
+176
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.0 runs
44.6% win
TB F5
1.8 runs
37.5% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
54.2%
YRFI
45.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 0.92x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY26.5%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonathan Aranda TB21.1%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE49.8% WR (n=156)
NYY has massive injury losses (Judge, Stanton out), but market prices favoritism (NYY +100 underdog despite better SP). Cole (B-, 7.4 K/9) vs McClanahan (B-, 9.3 K/9) favors TB on pitching, yet model only gives TB 52.6% win prob (close matchup). UNDER 7.5 at +9.7% edge is legitimate but marginal; no weather or park catalyst. NYY's lineup degradation (-1.2 runs) leaves minimal offensive upside. Close game with unclear direction.
Key Factors
- Injuries: NYY missing Aaron Judge (10-day ribs) and Giancarlo Stanton (10-day calf) = ~1.2 run offensive loss; model shows NYY 3.65 projected runs but Judge/Stanton combo would add 1.2 = real weakness
- SP matchup: Cole (B-, 0.518 grade, 7.4 K/9) vs McClanahan (B-, 0.52 grade, 9.3 K/9) — McClanahan K edge, but Cole's better overall arsenal (mixed SL/CH) is credible
- Tropicana Field: Roof CLOSED (neutral, 1.0 factor); 89.9F indoors = no weather edge
- UNDER 7.5 edge: +9.7% (60.3% model prob) is real but modest; no catalyst beyond SP matchup
Risk Factors
- Cole is elite closer (B- grade, 23.7% K rate); underestimating his ability vs TB lineup
- NYY's injury hit is severe but creates uncertainty: will TB accelerate scoring if NYY collapses, or will Cole shut them down further?
- TB bullpen fatigue possible if heavily used yesterday; unclear from data
MAJOR INJURIES NYYINDOOR DOME NEUTRALMARGINAL EDGESPITCHING ADVANTAGE TB
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 52.6%
-43.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.8 pts
Total
7.5
+9.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →