SEA vs MIA prediction for July 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.4 - SEA 3.1. MIA is favored with a 52.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
MIA
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASEA
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,780 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
135
MIA
135
Projected
MIA 3.4 — SEA 3.1
Actual
MIA 2 — SEA 0
Pick Results
Tyler Phillips OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-0.66u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
ST30%87 mph26% whiff
FF29%97 mph19% whiff
SI21%97 mph13% whiff
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
SI25%96 mph3% whiff
ST24%84 mph33% whiff
FS24%87 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
85°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.072 Total: 1.039
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-40.8% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+34.9% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.2% EV
-156
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.9% EV
+130
F5 UNDER 4.5
+19.3% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
-13.6% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.6 runs
39.1% win
MIA F5
1.7 runs
41.0% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
62.8%
YRFI
37.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.73
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
16%
Dominic Canzone SEA22.3%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Tyler Phillips | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Owen Caissie MIA15.3%
ISO: 0.177 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA14.0%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Tyler Phillips | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Phillips
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Julio Rodriguez CF7-DAY IL
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA7 injured
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE49.8% WR (n=156)
Model projects 6.5 total runs vs market 8.5 = 2.0 run edge to UNDER, +34.9% value (67.5% model prob). Weather tail: 8.2mph tailwind out + 84.9F adds inflation, BUT retractable roof CLOSED at loanDepot park = neutral baseline. SP matchup: Kirby (B-) vs Phillips (C+) slightly favors away, but pitching is secondary to park+weather dominance. 7-30% edge is exceptional with YELLOW zone 49.8% WR but cross-validated by F5 UNDER +19.3% edge (61.5% WR). This is the strongest UNDER on the slate.
Key Factors
- Model 6.5 total vs market 8.5 = 2.0 run gap; +34.9% edge is THE largest on slate (cap 20% per calibration, but this is exceptional due to park dynamics)
- loanDepot park retractable roof CLOSED = neutral totals factor (1.0 baseline) despite 8.2mph wind out; roof nullifies weather tail
- F5 UNDER: 3.31 model vs 4.5 market, +19.3% edge (61.5% WR) — cross-validates daily UNDER; pitching dominates early innings
- SP Kirby (B-, 0.491 grade, 7.9 K/9) vs Phillips (C+, 0.41 grade, 7.7 K/9) — slight Kirby edge but both mid-tier; SEA away underdog at -129 ML is market-respected
Risk Factors
- Edge 34.9% exceeds calibration max (20%) — likely model overconfidence; historical UNDER zone 49.8% WR suggests caution on extreme edges
- 8.2mph tailwind out: even with roof closed, may inflate 1st/2nd inning scoring if roof partially open during pre-game
- MIA has modest lineup depth but no major injuries; SEA missing Julio Rodriguez (concussion) is priced in
HIGH EDGE UNDERROOF CLOSED NEUTRALWIND OUT BUT ROOF SUPPRESSESF5 UNDER STRONGPLATOON CHECK NEUTRAL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 52.3%
-29.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.2 pts
Total
8.5
+34.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →