TOR vs SF prediction for July 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.9 - TOR 2.5. SF is favored with a 52.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 5.4 total runs.
SF
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TOR
2.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFTOR
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,780 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
124
SF
135
Projected
SF 2.9 — TOR 2.5
Actual
SF 0 — TOR 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dylan Cease R
TOR
FF36%98 mph26% whiff
SL29%89 mph42% whiff
CH11%84 mph57% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
SI32%92 mph10% whiff
CH24%86 mph27% whiff
ST19%84 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
65°F14 mph wind
HR: 0.948 Total: 0.968
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.6% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-30.7% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-21.9% EV
+142
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+21.2% EV
-112
F5_ML AWAY
-13.9% EV
-116
ML AWAY
-8.9% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.2 runs
34.4% win
SF F5
1.5 runs
42.4% win
F5 Total
2.8
NRFI
68.4%
YRFI
31.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.0
Over 0.5 HR
62%
Over 1.5 HR
26%
No HR
38%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Braydon Fisher RPBEREAVEMENT
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1N/A ZONE
Game appears to have already been played (Cease threw 8.0 no-hit innings per ESPN 2026-07-08T22:44Z), making this a resolved matchup rather than live play; model data integrity unknown for past games.
Key Factors
- ESPN headline (2026-07-08T22:44Z): 'Cease loses no-hit bid in 9th...Toronto 10-0 win' — game outcome known
- Simulation shows TOR win prob 47.4%, but actual result was TOR 10-0 victory — model underestimated
- Cease's elite performance (3.6K rate, B+ overall grade, 36% K+ rate) validates ace quality but game is resolved
Risk Factors
- Historical data mismatch — cannot validate model on past games
- Park factor 0.88 (SF suppresses runs) was correct, but 10-0 margin suggests dominant pitching not fully modeled
GAME ALREADY RESOLVEDDATA INTEGRITYESP NEWS CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 52.6%
-32.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.6 pts
Total
7.0
+21.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →