LAA vs SF prediction for July 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 4.3 - LAA 3.8. SF is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
SF
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFLAA
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (3,008 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 4.3 — LAA 3.8
Actual
SF 7 — LAA 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Johnson R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC30%90 mph30% whiff
SI28%92 mph3% whiff
FS26%85 mph36% whiff
Robbie Ray L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%93 mph18% whiff
SL27%86 mph32% whiff
CH17%86 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
62°F21 mph wind
HR: 1.110 Total: 1.064
20mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.1 runs
37.3% win
SF F5
2.5 runs
47.1% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
58.9%
YRFI
41.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Drew Cavanaugh CDAY-TO-DAY
Trevor McDonald SP15-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Jonah Cox CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
SF UNDER 8.5 at 61.8% model probability (18.1% edge) is a STRONG BET driven by environmental suppression (Oracle Park -12% run factor, 62.5F cold, 20.8 mph wind BLOWING IN at 19.9 mph tailwind INTO field) and elite pitcher mismatch (Webb C+ 0.407 grade vs Rodriguez C+ 0.384 grade, but Rodriguez's weak stuff 0.155 grade). Model projects 6.9 total — massive 1.6-run gap below 8.5 market. Edge 18.1% triggers HIGH_EDGE_WARNING but environmental data VALIDATES: marine layer + bay wind + cool temp + Oracle's suppression = 1.6-run real deficit. Closing odds (SF -161 to -174) show sharp support home, but totals soft (8.0 opening to 8.5 current), suggesting public overweighting scoring. This is rare justified high-edge play. BET with 1.2 unit due to environmental and weather confirmation overriding calibration concern.
Key Factors
- Environmental perfect storm: 62.5F (coldest game on slate) + 20.8 mph wind IN (19.9 mph effective headwind) + Oracle -12% park factor (0.88 multiplier) + marine layer = 1.5-2.0 run suppression
- Model projects 6.9 total (61.8% under 8.5); market 8.5 is 1.6-run gap — justified by physics not overconfidence
- SP quality: Webb (C+, 0.407 grade, 7.8 K/9) vs Rodriguez (C+, 0.384 grade but weak stuff 0.155) — parity favors SF home
- Both lineups power-limited in cold: LAA Trout (0.241 ISO but cold temp suppresses) vs SF Eldridge/Devers (0.223/0.212 ISO, cold further suppresses)
- Market opened 8.0 (likely sharp estimate) to current 8.5 (public overweight) — public money against model
Risk Factors
- Edge 18.1% formally above calibration cap (max 13%) — mandatory caution flag
- Recent high-edge totals (>15%) historically underperformed; but environmental data validates this edge is NOT model overconfidence
- Wind forecasts are volatile; if wind dies or changes direction, edge evaporates
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.