FINAL: PHI 1 — LAD 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 6.3 - LAD 5.8 (PHI at 53.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 12.1 total runs.
PHI
6.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
LAD
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHILAD
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LAD W4PHI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,971 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
468
PHI
468
Projected
PHI 6.3 — LAD 5.8
Actual
PHI 1 — LAD 2
Pick Results
LAD @ PHI F5 OVER 4.5f5LOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Justin Wrobleski L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF50%94 mph21% whiff
SL30%86 mph18% whiff
SI7%94 mph7% whiff
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph24% whiff
SI16%95 mph8% whiff
FS15%87 mph43% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
85°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.099 Total: 1.054
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.3% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-30.1% EV
-115
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+22.2% EV
-105
F5 OVER 4.5
+21.6% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-7.6% EV
-145
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+6.5% EV
+160
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
3.3 runs
40.8% win
PHI F5
3.6 runs
48.1% win
F5 Total
6.9
NRFI
45.4%
YRFI
54.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.34
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 23.4% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Justin Wrobleski | Park: 1.02x
Max Muncy LAD26.5%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Justin Wrobleski
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Enrique Hernandez 1B10-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI5 injured
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP15-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
Model 62.6% OVER 9.0 (12.07 total, +22.2% edge) with elite pitcher mismatch (Wheeler 2.3 ERA, B grade vs Wrobleski 2.91 ERA but C stuff) — market undervalues LAD's potent lineup vs Wrobleski. Heat (85.3F) + 11 mph tail wind (Citizens Bank Park favorable to overs) drives another +0.6 runs. PHI bullpen solid (4.19 ERA), LAD elite (3.58 ERA, 10.0 K/9), but SP quality heavily favors home. 22% edge in 20-25% bucket rare; confirmed by F5 OVER 4.5 at +21.6% edge (65% prob, GREEN F5 historical support historical a supportive track record).
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Wheeler (2.3 ERA, 30.4% K-rate, B grade, 8.0 K/9) crushes Wrobleski (2.91 ERA, 18.9% K-rate, B- grade, C stuff score 0.249 vs Wheeler 0.606) — elite ace vs mid-tier starter
- Weather perfect for overs: 85.3F + 11.4 mph tail wind at Citizens Bank = +0.6 runs added; humidity 68% neutral
- Park factor 1.02 (slight hitter's park), weather multiplier 1.054 — both overs-favoring
- LAD lineup (Ohtani, Muncy, Freddie) elite wOBA vs Wrobleski's below-average command (C-); first-inning edge confirmed by F5 21.6% edge
- Recent performance: F5 OVER historical support historically a supportive track record (GREEN), total OVER 20%+ historical support a supportive track record (sample 22-15)
Risk Factors
- 22% edge is EXTREME — model may be overconfident on LAD lineup vs Wrobleski; edges >20% show worst historical calibration (a supportive track record noted in calibration data)
- PHI bullpen ERA 4.19 is bottom-half MLB; if LAD builds early lead, PHI may not catch up — but that's priced in at 9.0
- Wrobleski K-rate only 18.9% vs league avg 22% — he allows more contact, higher variance
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 53.3%
+6.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+6.5 pts
Total
9.0
+22.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →