BAL vs BOS prediction for July 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.7 - BAL 5.0. BOS is favored with a 54.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
BOS
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSBAL
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,971 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
357
BOS
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI33%95 mph9% whiff
SL27%87 mph34% whiff
CU22%85 mph40% whiff
Eduardo Rivera L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF61%95 mph21% whiff
SL25%88 mph23% whiff
CH14%87 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
78°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.016
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.7 runs
39.1% win
BOS F5
3.2 runs
48.5% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
48.9%
YRFI
51.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.21
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Zack Kelly RP60-DAY-IL
Ranger Suarez SP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.