NYM vs MIL prediction for July 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.1 - NYM 4.1. MIL is favored with a 57.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
MIL
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILNYM
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,971 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.1 — NYM 4.1
Actual
MIL 0 — NYM 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zac Thornton L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC44%87 mph23% whiff
FF30%92 mph15% whiff
ST15%80 mph37% whiff
Brandon Sproat R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI24%96 mph15% whiff
FC23%93 mph20% whiff
FF22%97 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
73°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.029
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.4 runs
33.8% win
MIL F5
3.3 runs
53.4% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
46.7%
YRFI
53.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIL8 injured
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Harrison SP15-DAY-IL
David Hamilton 3B10-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model 57.5% MIL home with run-line +16.6% edge (45.7% prob, best edge on slate) but ML only -0.9% edge (56.6% vs 57.1% market), indicating spread overconfidence. SP: Sproat (B-, TBD ERA, 8.6 K/9, command 0.557) vs Thornton (B-, TBD ERA, command 0.601 elite) — Thornton slightly better command, Sproat similar overall grade; nearly matched. Weather cool (73.1F) at retractable Truist, wind neutral (11.2mph from North through open roof) = slight overs lean. Run-line edge huge but ML edge near-zero contradicts model confidence. Bullpen: MIL (3.66 ERA) vs NYM (3.44 ERA) — NYM slightly better. Red flag: massive run-line edge with near-zero ML edge suggests model spread prediction unreliable.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch absent: Sproat (B-, 8.6 K/9, command 0.557) vs Thornton (B-, 0 K/9 TBD, command 0.601) — Thornton command edge minimal, essentially toss-up
- Bullpen advantage NYM: 3.44 ERA vs MIL 3.66 ERA — small +0.22 ERA edge away team
- Weather cool (73.1F) + retractable roof + neutral wind = baseline 1.029x multiplier, slight overs lean
- Run-line edge 16.6% (45.7% MIL -1.5 prob) is HUGE but contradicted by ML edge -0.9% (market 57.1% > model 56.6%)
- Inconsistency: model favors MIL by 1.4% directionally but market prices MIL at -0.5% premium — suggests model overconfident on spread but underconfident on moneyline
Risk Factors
- RED FLAG: Massive run-line edge (+16.6%) with near-zero ML edge (-0.9%) indicates model spread prediction unreliable or market pricing spread differently than side
- Both pitchers TBD (no established ERA data) increases uncertainty
- MIL home field advantage typically small in MLB (~2% historically) — run-line edge of 16% overstates this by 8x
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →