TB vs TOR prediction for July 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.4 - TB 4.7. TB is favored with a 50.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
TOR
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORTB
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (2,971 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 4.4 — TB 4.7
Actual
TOR 2 — TB 12
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC31%90 mph23% whiff
FF27%96 mph23% whiff
SI22%96 mph11% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%94 mph14% whiff
FS38%84 mph39% whiff
SL10%84 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
70°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.025
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.6 runs
47.5% win
TOR F5
2.2 runs
37.5% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
54.1%
YRFI
45.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model 50.0-50.2% (coin flip directionally) with OVER 7.5 edge only +10.7% (58.9% prob, marginal) and ML edges near-zero (-3.3% home, -4.2% away). SP matchup balanced: Gausman (TBD ERA, B- grade, 8.9 K/9, strong command 0.553) vs Rasmussen (TBD ERA, B grade, 9.5 K/9, elite command 0.727) — essentially a toss-up with slight edge to visitor's elite command. Weather cool (69.8F) and retractable roof closed = neutral baseline. No catalyst for directional call; historical support profitability (YELLOW 50.1% totals) offers no edge. Skip and await lineup confirmation or sharp action.
Key Factors
- Pitcher coin flip: Gausman (TBD, B-, command 0.553) vs Rasmussen (TBD, B, command 0.727 elite) — very close, slight nod to Rasmussen command
- Both catchers/lineups unconfirmed (lineups_confirmed: false for both) — no batter analysis possible
- Weather neutral: 69.8F cool + retractable roof closed = standard 1.025x multiplier (Rogers Centre slightly suppress)
- Bullpen quality: TB 4.35 ERA vs TOR 3.92 ERA — TOR slight advantage but not significant
- OVER edge 10.7% marginal (58.9% prob) — not compelling vs historically mixed baseline
Risk Factors
- Both pitchers TBD (no established 2026 ERA data) = maximum uncertainty for SP analysis
- Model essentially coin flip (50.0% vs 50.2%) — no directional edge
- Lineups unconfirmed — cannot assess vs-LHP/RHP platoon advantages
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →