LAD vs STL prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.8 - LAD 3.2. STL is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
STL
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLLAD
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
135
STL
246
Projected
STL 3.8 — LAD 3.2
Actual
STL 7 — LAD 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF41%94 mph24% whiff
SL32%87 mph42% whiff
CH17%85 mph22% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF34%94 mph8% whiff
SL26%86 mph35% whiff
CH17%88 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
60°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.995
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.68ERA
3.33FIP
10.38K/9
3.57BB/9
1.20WHIP
STL
5.13ERA
4.47FIP
7.85K/9
4.96BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-36.4% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
+33.2% EV
+148
ML HOME
+32.9% EV
+150
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-29.5% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-29.2% EV
-189
ML AWAY
-26.9% EV
-179
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
1.7 runs
33.0% win
STL F5
2.2 runs
47.8% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
62.7%
YRFI
37.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.392 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.344 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
JJ Wetherholt STL30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Mookie Betts SS10-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B10-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE57.3% WR (n=133)
Market underpricing STL home underdog (+150) given both SPs are poor (Liberatore 5.13 ERA, Sheehan 5.16 ERA near-equal). Model sees 53.1% STL win (huge 32.9% edge) but high-edge warning: 15%+ edges have only 30% WR historically. LEAN rather than BET; also cap units due to calibration caution.
Key Factors
- Matthew Liberatore: 5.13 ERA, C+ overall, 0.158 stuff grade (weak)
- Emmet Sheehan: 5.16 ERA, B- overall, 0.587 stuff (stronger stuff but equally poor ERA)
- Both pitchers are below-average; edge comes from lineup quality or park (not pitcher)
- Model projects 53.1% STL win — but lacks pitcher support. Must be lineup edge.
- UNDER EDGE: 19.4% (model 63.8% vs market 36.2%) — both bad pitchers suggest runs
Risk Factors
- High edge warning: 32.9% edge puts this in 15%+ bucket which historically has 30% WR
- If model is overconfident by just 5%, STL fair value is ~48% not 53%
- STL bullpen is poor (5.13 ERA) — can blow leads late
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER DISADVANTAGEUNDER EDGE STRONGYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 58.2%
-20.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-20.3 pts
Total
8.5
+19.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →