LAD vs STL prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.8 - LAD 3.2. STL is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
STL
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLLAD
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
135
STL
246
Projected
STL 3.8 — LAD 3.2
Actual
STL 7 — LAD 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF41%94 mph24% whiff
SL32%87 mph42% whiff
CH17%85 mph22% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF34%94 mph8% whiff
SL26%86 mph35% whiff
CH17%88 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
60°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.995
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.68ERA
3.33FIP
10.38K/9
3.57BB/9
1.20WHIP
STL
5.13ERA
4.47FIP
7.85K/9
4.96BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-36.4% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
+33.2% EV
+148
ML HOME
+32.9% EV
+150
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-29.5% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-29.2% EV
-189
ML AWAY
-26.9% EV
-179
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
1.7 runs
33.0% win
STL F5
2.2 runs
47.8% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
62.7%
YRFI
37.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Max Muncy LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.392 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.344 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
JJ Wetherholt STL30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Emmet Sheehan | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Mookie Betts SS10-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B10-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP15-DAY-IL
Brusdar Graterol RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE57.3% WR (n=133)
Market underpricing STL home underdog (+150) given both SPs are poor (Liberatore 5.13 ERA, Sheehan 5.16 ERA near-equal). Model sees 53.1% STL win (huge 32.9% edge) but high-edge warning: 15%+ edges have only 30% WR historically. LEAN rather than BET; also cap units due to calibration caution.
Key Factors
- Matthew Liberatore: 5.13 ERA, C+ overall, 0.158 stuff grade (weak)
- Emmet Sheehan: 5.16 ERA, B- overall, 0.587 stuff (stronger stuff but equally poor ERA)
- Both pitchers are below-average; edge comes from lineup quality or park (not pitcher)
- Model projects 53.1% STL win — but lacks pitcher support. Must be lineup edge.
- UNDER EDGE: 19.4% (model 63.8% vs market 36.2%) — both bad pitchers suggest runs
Risk Factors
- High edge warning: 32.9% edge puts this in 15%+ bucket which historically has 30% WR
- If model is overconfident by just 5%, STL fair value is ~48% not 53%
- STL bullpen is poor (5.13 ERA) — can blow leads late
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER DISADVANTAGEUNDER EDGE STRONGYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 58.2%
-20.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-20.3 pts
Total
8.5
+19.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →