MIA vs ATL prediction for August 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.0 - MIA 3.3. ATL is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
ATL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIA
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLMIA
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.9% (3,107 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
135
ATL
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%94 mph9% whiff
SL21%86 mph12% whiff
CH18%87 mph24% whiff
Martín Pérez L
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%89 mph9% whiff
CH30%82 mph31% whiff
FC23%85 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
84°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.040 Total: 1.019
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.14ERA
3.86FIP
9.65K/9
4.10BB/9
1.24WHIP
ATL
2.78ERA
3.27FIP
9.61K/9
3.01BB/9
1.07WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.7 runs
32.7% win
ATL F5
2.3 runs
48.6% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA7 injured
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
ATL7 injured
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.